Potential impact of climate change on coffee production under a ricardian approach.

Abstract

Climate change (CC) has adversely affected coffee production and producer in-come. The Mazateca and Cuetzalan regions in Mexico are highly economically de-pendent on coffeegrowing and vulnerable to CC. This study assesses the potential impact of CC on coffee production in these regions. In 2019, data from a sample of 180 farms were collected and analyzed using the Ricardian approach, based on the analysis of land value (LV), to estimate the impact on the profitability of coffee farming under different CC scenarios. The results showed that CC will have a considerable impact on the LV in coffee-growing areas, especially for smallholder coffee farmers and in the Cuetzalan region. Based on projections, CC could have a positive impact on the LV in the Mazateca region in most scenarios, but in all sce-narios, the impact in the Cuetzalan region will be highly detrimental, with over 40% LV loss. Moreover, the negative impact of CC will be exacerbated for smallholder farmers, given their preexisting socioeconomic vulnerability and limited adaptive capacity. In conclusion, CC will have a marked impact on LV, varying from region to region, which could be irreversible for coffee production. Based on these find-ings, agricultural and non-agricultural production diversification strategies should be developed to replace the high farmers’ dependence on coffee-growing, thereby improving their income and reducing their vulnerability.