Effects of government policies on the spread of COVID-19 worldwide

Abstract

The outbreak of novel COVID-19 disease elicited a wide range of anti-contagion and economic policies like school closure, income support, contact tracing, and so forth, in the mitigation and suppression of the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. However, a systematic evaluation of these policies has not been made. Here, 17 implemented policies from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker dataset employed in 90 countries from December 31, 2019, to August 31, 2020, were analyzed. A Poisson regression model was applied to analyze the relationship between policies and daily confirmed cases using a generalized estimating equations approach. A lag is a fixed time displacement in time series data. With that, lagging (0, 3, 7, 10, and 14 days) was also considered during the analysis since the effects of policies implemented on a given day may affect the number of confirmed cases several days after implementation. The countries were divided into three groups depending on the number of waves of the pandemic observed in each country. Through subgroup analysis, we showed that with and without lagging, contact tracing and containment policies were significant for countries with two waves, while closing, economic, and health policies were significant for countries with three waves. Wave-specific analysis for each wave showed that significant health, economic, and containment policies varied across waves of the pandemic. Emergency investment in healthcare was consistently significant among the three groups of countries, while the Stringency index was significant among all waves of the pandemic. These findings may help in making informed decisions regarding whether, which, or when these policies should be intensified or lifted.