Modeling of poverty in Kalimantan with nonparametric spline regression approach

Abstract

Poverty is a problem that is always present in any country, including Indonesia. Kalimantan is one of the islands in Indonesia that has not been free from poverty. Therefore, more effective efforts to further reduce poverty are needed. The purpose of the is study was to develop a model that can explain significant factors to poverty in Kalimantan. To achive the objective, first, factors that may have significant influence to the changes in the percentage of poor people should be identified, using regression analysis. In this study, nonparametric regression analysis was used with a spline approach since the relationship between poverty and the explanatory factors did not have a particular pattern. The results of this study showed that, the best was using three knot points, where Open Unemployment Rate (OUR), Human Development Index (HDI), and Economic Growth have a significant effect on poverty in Kalimantan.