On some fundamental methodological aspects in foresight processes

Abstract

The question whether foresight processes are scientific procedures at all is still under lively discussion. In this article, we shall try to give an answer by creating a generic model of such processes and compare it to a widely accepted set of conditions characterizing scientific disciplines. The model developed here shows a similar structure, as some technology assessment procedure given by the German VDI, and is therefore one of the two major parts of a holistic approach to solving strategic decision problems. The detailed analysis will show how foresight fits to a fundamental model of sciences and reveals possible deficits and perils. Some recommendations are given for the development of quality assurance measures for foresight products. Special emphasis is laid upon the role of fallibilism and the applicability of Popper’s mechanism of falsifying hypotheses.