Assessing Vulnerability of Agriculture to Drought in East Java, Indonesia: Application of GIS and AHP

Abstract

Drought is known as a 'silent killer' - a slow-moving and unpredictable hazard, with agriculture being the first sector to be affected. In this research, the study used Oldeman Agroclimate data as a physical vulnerability indicator to assess and monitor the vulnerability of agricultural systems to drought in East Java. The study used long-term monthly rainfall observation data to generate climate maps with socio-economic indicators to assess the region's vulnerability to drought. The spatial distribution of vulnerability was mapped using Geographic Information System (GIS) combined with Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The results show there are five categories of vulnerability to drought: very high, high, moderate, low, and very low based on standardized index. Madura Island, particularly Bangkalan, Sampang, and Sumenep considered as most vulnerable region to drought. In addition, most regions in the north plain of East Java, including Tuban, Lamongan, and Gresik categorized as highly vulnerable to drought. Factors affecting vulnerability are mostly related to drier climate which affect acreage and availability of irrigation. The socio-economic factors likewise smallholder farmers and poverty contribute to rising vulnerability level. South part of East Java, particularly Tulungagung and Blitar Regency was least vulnerable because of appropriate climate which induced to acreage of irrigated land. The study emphasizes the utilizing of Oldeman climate pattern as primary indicator in determining vulnerable regions. Smallholder farmers and poverty causing vulnerability in agriculture emerged as priority for further study. The results can provide new insights into drought management for most vulnerable regions by considering local climatic characteristics.