Developing Densely: Estimating the Effect of Subway Growth on New York City Land Uses

Abstract

In the early twentieth century, New York City’s population, developed land area, and subway network size all increased dramati- cally. ?erapid expansion of the transit systemand land development present intriguing questions as towhether land development led subway growth or if subway expansionwas a precursor to real estate development. ?eresearch described in this article uses Granger causality models based on parcel-level data to explore the co-development of the subway systemand residential and commercial land uses, and attempts to de- terminewhether subway stationswere a leading indicator of residential and commercial development or if subway station expansion followed residential and commercial construction. ?eresults of this study suggest that the subway network developed in an orderly fashion and grew densest in areas where there was growth in commercial development. ?ere is no evidence that subway growth preceded residential devel- opment throughout the city. ?ese results suggest that subway stations opened in areas already well-served by the system and that network growth o?en followed residential and commercial development. ?e subway network acted as an agent of decentralization away fromlower Manhattan as routes and stations were sought in areas with established ridership demand.