Will Fire Danger Be Reduced by Using Solar Radiation Management to Limit Global Warming to 1.5 °C Compared to 2.0 °C?

Abstract

The commitment to limit warming to 1.5 °C as set out in the Paris Agreement is widely regarded as ambitious and challenging. It has been proposed that reaching this target may require a number of actions, which could include some form of carbon removal or Solar Radiation Management in addition to strong emission reductions. Here we assess one theoretical solution using Solar Radiation Management to limit global mean warming to 1.5 °C above preindustrial temperatures and use the McArthur fire danger index to evaluate the change in fire danger. The results show that globally fire danger is reduced in most areas when temperatures are limited to 1.5 °C compared to 2.0 °C. The number of days where fire danger is “high” or above is reduced by up to 30 days/year on average, although there are regional variations. In certain regions, fire danger is increased, experiencing 31 more days above “high” fire danger.