Avaliação bayesiana da eficácia da manutenç ão via processo de renovação generalizado

Abstract

The Generalized Renewal Process (GRP) is a class of probabilistic models that handles repair actions according to the reduction they provide on the real age of an equipment/system. GRP is an extension of the Renewal Process and Non Homogeneous Poisson Process and it will be used to evaluate repair actions regarding their efficacy degree. Considering that the times between failures follow a Weibull distribution, such an evaluation will be accomplished through the estimation of the GRP parameter distributions and uncertainty analysis on the expected number of failures through Monte Carlo simulation. Due to paucity of failure data, the probabilistic inference procedure will be executed through the Bayesian paradigm which allows for the use of other sources of information, besides the failure data, in the process of estimating the probability distribution on some parameter of interest.