The Potential of Green Hydrogen and Power-to-X to Decarbonize the Fertilizer Industry in Jordan

Abstract

Considering economic and environmental aspects, this study explored the potential of replacing urea imports in Jordan with local production utilizing green hydrogen, considering agricultural land distribution, fertilizer need, and hydrogen demand. The analysis estimated the 2023 urea imports at approximately 13,991.37 tons and evaluated the corresponding costs under various market scenarios. The cost of urea imports was projected to range between USD 6.30 million and USD 8.39 million; domestic production using green hydrogen would cost significantly more, ranging from USD 30.37 million to USD 70.85 million. Despite the economic challenges, transitioning to green hydrogen would achieve a 100% reduction in CO2 emissions, eliminating 48,739.87 tons of CO2 annually. Considering the Jordanian case, an SWOT analysis was conducted to highlight the potential transition strengths, such as environmental benefits and energy independence, alongside weaknesses, such as high initial costs and infrastructure gaps. A competitive analysis was conducted to determine the competition of green hydrogen-based ammonia compared to conventional methods. Further, the analysis identified opportunities, advancements in green hydrogen technology, and potential policy support. Threats were assessed considering global competition and market dynamics.