GHGs emission reductions and economic saving by enhancing switching to natural gas vehicles in Egypt

Abstract

Transportation and Climate change are inextricably linked. As the transport sector is the primary consumer of petroleum products and therefore, contributes a significant share of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Mobile sources share ranges between 25 and 30% of total Egypt’s GHG emissions. So, Egypt is giving a great concern for natural gas vehicles (NGVs) as low-carbon alternative to gasoline/diesel vehicles. This study aims to analyze the economic and the environmental impact of the NGV fleet growth in Egypt with future prospective scenarios, concurrently with governmental strategy based on expansion of compressed natural gas fueling stations infrastructure and incentives for NGV transformation. Egypt’s NGV program led to about 5 Mt CO2 emissions reductions and about 21.57 billion EGP (US$1.4 billion) economic saving since starting up to end of 2021. And implementing of presidential initiative in 2021 to accelerate NGVs led to jumping in CO2 emissions reductions and economic saving by about 40% and 49% of pervious year, respectively. It is observed that scenario no. 1, of NGV adopting percent 15%, is the most fitted business as usual scenario to the presidential initiative and will lead to emissions reduction by about 30 Mt CO2 and economic saving by about 278 billion EGP (US$17.6 billion).