CryptoAR: scrutinizing the trend and market of cryptocurrency using machine learning approach on time series data

Abstract

Cryptocurrencies are encrypted digital or virtual money used to avoid counterfeiting and double spending. The scope of this study is to evaluate cryptocurrencies and forecast their price in the context of the currency rate trends. A public survey was conducted to determine which cryptocurrency is the most well-known among Bangladeshi people. According to the survey respondents, Bitcoin is the most famous cryptocurrency among the eight digital currencies. After that, we'll explore the four most well-known cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Tether token. The 'YFinance' python package collects our cryptocurrency dataset, and the relative strength index (RSI) is employed to investigate these cryptocurrencies. Autoregressive (AR), moving average (MA), and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models are applied to our time-series data from 2015-1-1 to 2021-6-1. Using the 'closing' price and a simple moving average (SMA) graph, bitcoin and tether are identified as oversold or overbought cryptocurrencies. We employ the seasonal decomposed technique into the dataset before implementing the model, and the augmented dickey-fuller test (ADF) indicates too much seasonality in the dataset. The autoregressive (AR) model is the most accurate in predicting the price of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Tether-token, with 97.21%, 96.04%, 95.8%, and 99.91% accuracy, consecutively.