Hypocapnia is an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality in acute heart failure

Abstract

Aims: Acute heart failure (AHF) poses a major threat to hospitalized patients for its high mortality rate and serious complications. The aim of this study is to determine whether hypocapnia [defined as the partial pressure of arterial carbon dioxide (PaCO2) below 35 mmHg] on admission could be associated with in-hospital all-cause mortality in AHF. Methods and results: A total of 676 patients treated in the coronary care unit for AHF were retrospectively analysed, and the study endpoint was in-hospital all-cause mortality. The 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM) analysis, Kaplan–Meier curve, and Cox regression model were used to explore the association between hypocapnia and in-hospital all-cause mortality in AHF. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and Delong's test were used to assess the performance of hypocapnia in predicting in-hospital all-cause mortality in AHF. The study cohort included 464 (68.6%) males and 212 (31.4%) females, and the median age was 66 years (interquartile range 56–74 years). Ninety-eight (14.5%) patients died during hospitalization and presented more hypocapnia than survivors (76.5% vs. 45.5%, P < 0.001). A 1:1 PSM was performed between hypocapnic and non-hypocapnic patients, with 264 individuals in each of the two groups after matching. Compared with non-hypocapnic patients, in-hospital mortality was significantly higher in hypocapnic patients both before (22.2% vs. 6.8%, P < 0.001) and after (20.8% vs. 8.7%, P < 0.001) PSM. Kaplan–Meier curve showed a significantly higher probability of in-hospital death in patients with hypocapnia before and after PSM (both P < 0.001 for the log-rank test). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that hypocapnia was an independent predictor of AHF mortality both before [hazard ratio (HR) 2.22; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.23–3.98; P = 0.008] and after (HR 2.19; 95% CI 1.18–4.07; P = 0.013) PSM. Delong's test showed that the area under the ROC curve was improved after adding hypocapnia into the model (0.872, 95% CI 0.839–0.901 vs. 0.855, 95% CI 0.820–0.886, P = 0.028). PaCO2 was correlated with the estimated glomerular filtration rate (r = 0.20, P = 0.001), left ventricular ejection fraction (r = 0.13, P < 0.001), B-type natriuretic peptide (r = −0.28, P < 0.001), and lactate (r = −0.15, P < 0.001). Kaplan–Meier curve of PaCO2 tertiles and multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the lowest PaCO2 tertile was associated with increased risk of in-hospital mortality in AHF (all P < 0.05). Conclusions: Hypocapnia is an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality for AHF.