PERAMALAN JUMLAH KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN AUSTRALIA YANG BERKUNJUNG KE BALI MENGGUNAKAN MODEL TIME VARYING PARAMETER (TVP)

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to forecast the number of Australian tourists arrival to Bali using Time Varying Parameter (TVP) model based on inflation of Indonesia and exchange rate AUD to IDR from January 2010 – December 2015 as explanatory variables. TVP model is specified in a state space model and estimated by Kalman filter algorithm. The result shows that the TVP model can be used to forecast the number of Australian tourists arrival to Bali because it satisfied the assumption that the residuals are distributed normally and the residuals in the measurement and transition equations are not correlated. The estimated TVP model is . This model has a value of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is equal to dan root mean square percentage error (RMSPE) is equal to . The number of Australian tourists arrival to Bali for the next five periods is predicted: ; ; ; ; and (January - May 2016).