Integrating the Water Footprint and DPSIR Model to Evaluate Agricultural Water Sustainability in Arid Regions: A Case Study of the Turpan–Hami Basin

Abstract

Water resources are a key constraint on sustainable development in arid regions, especially for agricultural production where water use is intensive. To assess the sustainability of agricultural water use in such environments, this study utilizes 2010–2020 agricultural data from the Turpan–Hami Basin and is among the first to integrate the water footprint (WF) theory with the DPSIR (driver–pressure–state–impact–response) model into a comprehensive framework for evaluating water resource sustainability in arid agricultural systems. The agricultural blue, green, and grey WF in the Turpan–Hami Basin were quantified for 2010–2020, followed by a sustainability assessment under the DPSIR framework using a comprehensive weighting method. The results showed a continuous increase in the WF, dominated by the blue WF (>60%), largely due to crops like cotton and grapes, intensifying regional water stress. Turpan experienced prolonged resource overload, while Hami exhibited slightly higher sustainability. DPSIR analysis revealed stronger policy responses in Turpan and significant ecological investments in Hami. Key influencing factors included the crop yield, WF modulus, per capita WF, and water quality shortage index. Overall, sustainability in the basin fluctuated between “Basically Sustainable (Level III)” and “Insufficiently Sustainable (Level IV)”, with slight improvement in 2020. The findings highlight the need for region-specific agricultural optimization, strengthened ecological governance, and improved water-saving strategies to enhance water use efficiency and sustainability in arid regions.