Model of Epidemic Kinetics with a Source on the Example of Moscow

Abstract

A new theoretical model of epidemic kinetics is considered, which uses elements of the physical model of the kinetics of the atomic level populations of an active laser medium as follows: a description of states and their populations, transition rates between states, an integral operator, and a source of influence. It is shown that to describe a long-term epidemic, it is necessary to use the concept of the source of infection. With a model constant source of infection, the epidemic, in terms of the number of actively infected people, goes to a stationary regime, which does not depend on the population size and the characteristics of quarantine measures. Statistics for Moscow daily increase in infected is used to determine the real source of infection. An interpretation of the waves generated by the source is given. It is shown that more accurate statistics of excess mortality can only be used to clarify the frequency rate of mortality of the epidemic, but not to determine the source of infection.