Satellite-Driven Hydrological Modelling in Ungauged Moroccan bassins: case study Ouzoud river

Abstract

Predicting streamflow is vital for flash-flood early warning systems and managing water resources under climate change. However, limited streamflow observations restrict advanced prediction techniques to gauged basins, leaving most of the world's ungauged basins at a disadvantage. Developing reliable prediction methods for ungauged basins (PUB) is therefore essential. Over the past two decades, satellite-driven products, such as ERA5, have become crucial for enhancing precipitation and meteorological measurements, especially in complex terrains and changing climatic conditions. This study focuses on Morocco's arid and semi-arid regions, where water resource management is critical for agriculture, urbanization, and economic stability. Using the ERA5 dataset, which provides high-resolution atmospheric information, the study evaluates satellite-derived precipitation against ground measurements from the Sgatt station at Bernat River on daily timescales. Various statistical metrics assess ERA5's performance in representing daily precipitation and its integration into the GR4J-CemaNeige model for flow simulation. Results highlight the potential of ERA5 in improving rainfall representation and hydrological modelling in ungauged basins, verifying its effectiveness in simulating rainfall events compared to ground-based observations. This work underscores the importance of satellite-driven products for enhancing hydrological predictions and supporting water management in data-scarce regions.