Mass Emigration and the Erosion of Liberal Democracy

Abstract

In many regions of the world, liberal politics is on the retreat. This development is usually explained with reference to in- herently political phenomena. We propose an alternative explanation, linking democratic backsliding to deep-reaching de- mographic change caused by mass emigration. We argue that because migrants tend to be more politically liberal, their de- parture, if quantitatively significant, can hurt liberal democracy. Empirically, we focus on Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Since 2004, the region has lost about 9 percent of its population due to migration to Western Europe. Drawing on data from 430,000 individuals and a panel analysis, we show that CEE migrants systematically hold more liberal values than non-migrants and that their exit went along with a deterioration of democracy in their home countries. Further analyses show that the mechanism we describe generalizes to various other world regions. Mass emigration may pose a challenge to democratic development in migrant-sending countries around the globe.