Mountain range specific analog weather forecast model for northwest Himalaya in India

Abstract

Mountain range specific analog weather forecast model is developed utilizing surface weather observations of reference stations in each mountain range in northwest Himalaya (NW-Himalaya). The model searches past similar cases from historical dataset of reference observatory in each mountain range based on current situation. The searched past similar cases of each mountain range are used to draw weather forecast for that mountain range in operational weather forecasting mode, three days in advance. The developed analog weather forecast model is tested with the independent dataset of more than 717 days (542 days for Pir Panjal range in HP) of the past 4 winters (2003-2004 to 2006-2007). Independent test results are reasonably good and suggest that there is some possibility of forecasting weather in operational weather forecasting mode employing analog method over different mountain ranges in NW-Himalaya. Significant difference in overall accuracy of the model is found for prediction of snow day and no-snow day over different mountain ranges, when weather is predicted under snow day and no-snow day weather forecast categories respectively. In the same mountain range, significant difference is also found in overall accuracy of the model for prediction of snow day and no-snow day for different areas. This can be attributed to their geographical position and topographical differences. The analog weather forecast model performs better than persistence and climatological forecast for day-1 predictions for all the mountain ranges except Karakoram range in NW-Himalaya. The developed analog weather forecast model may help as a guidance tool for forecasting weather in operational weather forecasting mode in different mountain ranges in NW-Himalaya.