An Alternative Perspective on the Changing Relationships between Fertility and Replacement Level in European Countries

Abstract

This paper brings a new perspective to the population growth implications of the low fertility levels of European countries. For years between 2009 and 2018, whether constant fertility, mortality, and net migration would generate long-run population growth or population decrease is indicated simply and visually by comparison of the total fertility rate (TFR) to a migration-adjusted replacement level. The results show that, when considered in combination with concurrent net migration and mortality, the population growth implication of low fertility varies between countries and over time. For Sweden, Luxembourg, Belgium, and the United Kingdom for all the years considered the fertility–mortality–migration combination is coherent with long-run population growth. For the former two countries, long-run population growth would be sustained by net migration at current levels even if fertility were to fall to very low levels. In contrast, for every Eastern European country and year considered, unchanged fertility–mortality–migration combination would lead to population decrease. The need for an alternative view of low fertility in terms of whether the TFR is above or below a migration-adjusted replacement level and the need for a migration context-specific view, as distinct from a universal best view, of the desirability of fertility level are discussed.