ARIMA Intervention Model for Measuring the Impact of the Lobster Seeds Fishing and Export Ban Policy on the Indonesian Lobster Export

Abstract

An intervention model is an analytical method for evaluating or measuring the impact of an external event called intervention, such as a natural disaster, holidays, sales promotions, and other policy changes. Two types of intervention variables will be used to represent the presence or absence of the event, i.e., a pulse or step. The pulse function is used to represent a temporary intervention, whereas the step function shows a long-term intervention. This study aims to develop a time series model with an intervention of step function for measuring the impact of two policies related to the prohibition of fishing and the export of lobster seeds on the export value of Indonesian lobster. These policies are the Ministerial Regulation No.1 of 2015 since January 2015 related banning of lobster seeds fishing (called first intervention) and the Ministerial Regulation No. 56 of 2016 since January 2017 related lobster seeds fishing and export ban policy (called second intervention). These regulations are designed to ensure lobster sustainability and add value to lobsters that are currently overfished. The results show that both policies significantly affect the export value of lobster in Indonesia, and the interventions have a permanent impact.