China’s LNG import risk assessment based on the perspective of global governance

Abstract

The uncertainty of LNG import risks will have a significant impact on China's energy security. This paper establishes a multi-agent game model based on the current LNG transportation network and global LNG supply and demand pattern, evaluates the LNG import risks faced by China under the global governance model, and simulates and predicts the optimal LNG import strategy of China in 2030. The research results show that between 2007 and 2020, China’s LNG import risks increased rapidly compared with political risks and national risks. From the perspective of risk identification, the comprehensive risk of China's imports from Southeast Asia and Australia is lower. However, due to the increasing demand gap for LNG, the Middle East, and Africa are still necessary supply sources. It is estimated that by 2030, the future LNG market will be oversupplied, and the United States is expected to become the world's top LNG supplier. China will reduce its dependence on Africa and the Middle East, and import a large amount of natural gas from the United States, Australia, Qatar, and Russia to reduce supply risks. From the perspective of import market competition, the new analysis model proposed in this article provides an effective tool for exploring the optimal strategy for LNG import.