Consensus on priority research themes: Utilizing the modified Delphi method for Indonesia foresight's 2045 disaster research topic

Abstract

This is a study that uses a modified two-round Delphi survey online approach and uses the WhatsApp application as a discussion medium for several weeks with around 100 experts participating. Then a discussion was held which required physical presence and in-depth interviews with the experts who were present in the one-day discussion. This study is an effort by the Indonesian Ministry of Research and Technology to determine the priorities of many catastrophe research issues in Indonesia until 2045 by using the Delphi technique to get expert opinion. Starting in the first round by collecting themes and topics that are considered important in the future through open questions. Then the various themes and topics were converted into statements of themes and research topics. There were 67 participants who participated. Then, nineteen priority research themes were chosen and evaluated by 67 experts in the second round of the online survey. The results of the study were then discussed and discussed in two one-day discussions in a hotel room in two cities in Indonesia, involving 40 experts. Then the researchers interviewed experts and ranked them until they obtained 10 priority themes. The results of this study produced a consensus from disaster researchers and disaster technology experts regarding priority themes for the future: 1) research on disaster risk mitigation efforts, 2) Climate change does occur and potential to be a disaster, 3) Engineering technology for disaster risk mitigation, and 4) research on adaptations to the impact of disasters. It is also evident from in-depth interviews that other research topics: research for developing tsunami early warning systems, volcanic eruptions, drought hazards, landslide hazards, and land fires, are important to do. Research priorities of Indonesia's Disaster research themes include consensus to emphasize more on research on disaster risk mitigation/adaptation and research for developing a disaster early warning system.