Application of SA-Conv1D-BiGRU model for streamflow prediction in southern Ethiopia

Abstract

Streamflow prediction offers crucial information for managing water resources, flood control, and hydropower generation. Yet, reliable streamflow prediction is challenging due to the complexity and nonlinearity of the rainfall-runoff relationship. This study investigated the comparative performance of the newly integrated self-attention-based deep learning (DL) model, SA-Conv1D-BiGRU with Conv1D-LSTM, and bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) models for streamflow prediction under different time-series conditions, and a range of variable input combinations based on flood events. All datasets passed quality control procedures, and the time lag for generating input series was established through Pearson correlation analysis. 80% of the data was used for training, whereas 20% was used to evaluate the model’s performance. The performance of the models was evaluated using three metrics: mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and correlation coefficient (R2). The findings reveal the excellent potential of DL models for streamflow prediction, with the SAConv1D-BiGRU model outperforming other models under different time-series characteristics. Despite the complexity, the Conv1D-LSTM models did not outperform the Bi-LSTM model. In conclusion, the results are condensed into themes of model variability and time-series characteristics. Consequently, different architectures in DL models had a greater influence on streamflow prediction accuracy than input time lags and time-series features.