A Kaleckian model of new orders of non-defense capital goods in the USA 1992-2010

Abstract

The paper follows Kalecki’s ‘golden rules’ under which historical materialism and econometrics can be reconciled provided that changes in the superstructure are not of such a magnitude as to invalidate the use of econometrics to estimate the relationships between the economic variables in the sector of productive activity and that productive relations are explicitly included in the model. Econometric estimates of the determinants of non-farm, non-financial capital goods in the USA 1992-2010 are presented. Statistically significant relationships are found between investment orders and cyclical variations in output, the interest rate spread, net cash flows, the net increase in financial liabilities, the net increase in financial assets, and the value of non-defense manufacturing shipments.