Energy Transition in Vietnam: A Strategic Analysis and Forecast

Abstract

Energy landscapes in Asia and other regions are currently undergoing a transformation aimed at increasing the share of clean energy sources. This article analyzes and forecasts the electricity demand in Vietnam, examining existing constraints that necessitate the shift from coal to renewable energy sources. The rapid economic growth in Vietnam is driving a substantial surge in electricity demand, projected to reach 124 thousand MW by 2030 according to the National Electricity Plan, positioning Vietnam second in Southeast Asia. This surge poses a significant challenge to national energy security, given the impracticality of effective coal mining in the country and the imperative to develop renewable energy sources. Anticipating the changes in Vietnam’s energy mix by 2050, this study foresees a substantial reduction in dependence on coal production. Government investment and green energy investment funds such as JETP are strategically directed towards renewable energy sources, including solar, wind, biomass, hydrogen energy, and efficient energy storage technologies. Consequently, this research substantiates the viability of an energy transition from coal to green energy in Vietnam. The article presents an assessment of the rate of replacing coal with renewable energy sources, taking into consideration various scenarios for economic development, energy consumption growth, and the utilization of renewable energy sources.