Yeşilırmak Havzası Mekânsal Yağış Dağılımına ait Değişiminin Deterministik ve Stokastik Yöntemlerle Belirlenmesi

Abstract

In this study, it is aimed to determine the best model that represents spatial distribution of precipitation using with deterministic and stochastic methods and to find precipitation change in Yeşilırmak Basin. For creating of data set, annual total precipitation data from thirty meteorological observation stations between 1954 and 2014 are used. In this study, deterministic methods, namely Inverse Distance Method (IDW) and stochastic methods, namely Ordinary Kriging (OK) are used together. The accuracy of the models is tested using the Cross Validation method and the models are compared using the Mean Error (ME), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Standardized Root Mean Square Error (RMSS). From the most appropriate model selection, spatial distribution of precipitation maps for the period 1954 - 1984 and 1984 - 2014 are established and the changes are investigated. Results of this study can be collected in two groups. (i) Modeling with the OK method is pointed better results than IDW method. (ii) During the second thirty year’s period, total precipitation trend in the basin is rising.