Towards impact-based flood forecasting and warning in Malaysia: A case study at Kelantan river

Abstract

Impact-based forecasting and warning services aim to bridge the gap between producers and users of warning information by connecting and increasing synergies between the components of effective early warning systems. In this research, we proposed an automated warning message based on colour codes to trigger risk mitigation actions at the local level in the flood-exposed communities of Kelantan river basin, Malaysia. With a community-based approach for different groups of users (i.e. sectors), flood-impact scenarios were determined from past events and related to colour codes. These were developed into impact-based forecasting and warnings that can connect water levels, through the colour code, to localised guidance information tailored to sectors’ needs on how to respond to the expected flood. Overall, the colour coded impact-based warnings were found to be an easy and understandable way to link water level forecasts to the necessary risk mitigation actions. However, further investigation is needed to validate these findings under real-time conditions. IBF has vast potential in Malaysia, but its integration requires significant institutional changes, such as an inter-facing agency (long term) or team (short term), adjusted policy frameworks (standing orders on disasters), and new resource allocations for skills development and technological innovation from national to local levels. Overall, this paper aims to offer the first insight into impact-based forecasting and warning services in Malaysia to trigger further research and project developments.