Course of the first month of the COVID 19 outbreak in the New York State counties

Abstract

We illustrate and study the evolution of reported infections over the month of March in New York State as a whole, as well as in each individual county in the state. We identify piecewise exponential trends, and search for correlations between the timing and dynamics of these trends and statewide mandated measures on testing and social distancing. We conclude that the reports on April 1 may be dramatically under-representing the actual number of statewide infections, an idea which is supported by more recent retroactive estimates based on serological studies. A follow-up study is underway, reassessing data until June 1, using additional measures for validation and monitoring for effects of the PAUSE directive, and of the reopening timeline.