The Earthquake Risk Model of Switzerland, ERM-CH23

Abstract

Understanding seismic risk at both the national and sub-national level is essential for devising effective strategies and interventions aimed at its mitigation. The Earthquake Risk Model of Switzerland (ERM-CH23), released in early 2023, is the culmination of a multidisciplinary effort aiming to achieve for the first time a comprehensive assessment of the potential consequences of earthquakes on the Swiss building stock and population. Having been developed as a national model, ERM-CH23 relies on very high-resolution site-amplification and building exposure datasets, which distinguishes it from most regional models to date. Several loss types are evaluated, ranging from structural–nonstructural and content economic losses to human losses, such as deaths, injuries, and displaced population. In this paper, we offer a snapshot of ERM-CH23, summarize key details on the development of its components, highlight important results, and provide comparisons with other models.