Drought analysis in the Yellow River Basin based on a short-scalar palmer drought severity index

Abstract

Focusing on the shortages of moisture estimation and time scale in the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI), this study proposed a new Palmer variant by introducing the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model in hydrologic accounting module, and modifying the standardization process to make the index capable for monitoring droughts at short time scales. The performance of the newly generated index was evaluated over the Yellow River Basin (YRB) during 1961-2012. For time scale verification, the standardized precipitation index (SPI), and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at a 3-month time scale were employed. Results show that the new Palmer variant is highly correlated with SPI and SPEI, combined with a more stable behavior in drought frequency than original scPDSI. For drought trend detection, this new index is more inclined to reflect comprehensive moisture conditions and reveals a different spatial pattern from SPI and SPEI in winter. Besides, two remote sensing products of soil moisture and vegetation were also employed for comparison. Given their general consistent behaviors in monitoring the spatiotemporal evolution of the 2000 drought, it is suggested that the new Palmer variant is a good indicator for monitoring soil moisture variation and the dynamics of vegetation growth.