Estimating the supply of oilseed acreage for sustainable aviation fuel production: taking account of farmers’ willingness to adopt

Abstract

Background: Continued progress towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions will require efforts across many industries. Though aviation is estimated to account for modest portions of global greenhouse gas emissions, these shares may grow as the industry expands. The use of biomass- and crop-based sustainable aviation fuels can help reduce emissions in the industry. However, limited feedstock supplies are a barrier to increased use of these fuels. This study examines the potential supply of feedstock from oilseeds and farmer willingness to produce oilseed crops under contract for sustainable aviation fuel production with a focus on canola and similar oilseed feedstocks (e.g., rapeseed). Stated-choice survey data is used to examine the contract and crop features that drive contract acceptance in six states located in the U.S. Great Plains and Pacific Northwest and then acreage supply curves are estimated for canola using secondary data. Main findings: The estimated number of acres supplied under contract varies considerably across states and scenarios. Relatedly, estimated supply curves exhibit high degrees of price responsiveness. Of the states analyzed, oilseed acreages supplied under contract are generally found to be greatest in Kansas and North Dakota. Conclusions: Results suggest that in the absence of favorable contract and crop scenarios canola and other oilseed prices will need to considerably increase from typical levels to induce higher levels of supplied acres. The presence of crop insurance, shorter contract lengths that provide cost sharing and the availability of particular crop attributes are shown to diminish the need for higher canola and other oilseed prices.