Financial conditions and the well-being of the real estate sector—A bottom-up default analysis on five ASEAN economies

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of financial conditions, for example, cross-border capital flows, interest rates and foreign exchange rates, on the well-being of the real estate developers in five Association of Southeast Asian Nations economies. The study uses a Bottom-up Default Analysis model to stress test their creditworthiness by reproducing the financial shocks during the global financial crisis, taper tantrum, and the U.S.-China trade war and COVID-19 pandemic. The median developers remain sound under the prescribed adversities. The performance is underpinned by their strong fundamentals and a conducive mix of monetary, foreign exchange, and open capital account policies by national authorities.