The Competing Hypotheses Analytical Model and Human Intelligence Single-Source Analysis

Abstract

The article examines some particular aspects of the analytical process within the intelligence cycle, having as reference the framework of strategic intelligence. Starting from a proposed model of analysis of the competing hypotheses using phases-tailored tools, which will improve the quality of all-source intelligence analysis and its final products, we further assess its applicability in HUMINT (Human Intelligence) analysis. The model of intelligence analysis as a problem-solving method, with a focus on predictive analysis, will serve to understand the expectations from single-source collection disciplines (in our case, HUMINT) data gathering and reporting, connected to the roles of HUMINT analysts in the specialized branches.