Future perspectives of earthquake-tsunami catastrophe modelling: From single-hazards to cascading and compounding multi-hazards

Abstract

Probabilistic risk models for natural hazards, or natural catastrophe models, are indispensable tools for forecasting and quantifying the impacts of cascading and compounding earthquake-tsunami hazards. Their applications facilitate improved disaster risk mitigation and management. Uncertainties associated with forecasted multi-hazard impacts can be substantial, and practitioners and policymakers need guidance on implementing disaster risk reduction actions at all levels (local, regional, national, and international). In communicating such broad ranges of possible consequences with stakeholders, disaster scenarios need to be carefully selected and presented. This article reviews the state-of-the-art of earthquake, tsunami, and earthquake-tsunami catastrophe modelling and discusses future perspectives for earthquake-tsunami risk assessments.