Historical climate variability extremes and socio-environmental impacts in Ethiopia

Abstract

Background: Ethiopia is highly vulnerable to climate variability and extremes, yet fragmented evidence limits comprehensive understanding of long-term trends and impacts. Given the country’s heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture and its high exposure to climate-sensitive sectors, a comprehensive synthesis of climate variability and its associated impacts is critically important to inform evidence-based adaptation strategies, policy decisions, and sustainable development planning. Methods: This study systematically reviewed peer-reviewed articles, reports, and datasets published between 2004 and 2025 following PRISMA guidelines. Trends in temperature, precipitation, climate extremes, and socio-environmental impacts were synthesized across agro-ecological zones. Results: Results indicate a statistically significant warming trend ranging from 0.2 to 0.5 °C per decade, increasing frequency of droughts and extreme rainfall events, and pronounced impacts on agriculture, water resources, health, and ecosystems. Regional disparities were evident, with northern and eastern Ethiopia exhibiting higher vulnerability. Conclusion: The findings highlight accelerating climate risks and underscore the need for region-specific adaptation strategies, improved climate services, and integration of climate science into national development planning.