Impacts of automated trucks on U.S. freight movements: application and enhancement of the random-utility-based multiregional input-output model

Abstract

Fully automated trucks (ATrucks) will impact the US freight flow patterns, due to time and cost savings compared to human-driven trucks (HTrucks). This paper advances the random-utility-multiregional input-output (RUBMRIO) model to have explicit mode’s commodity-pricing impacts and predicts impacts of ATrucks on freight mode and origin choices across 20 commodity sectors across US. Assuming ATrucks’ operating cost to be 60% of that for HTrucks, results suggest that time and cost savings from the use of ATrucks not only accommodate the need to acquire high-value goods from more closer locations but also facilitates the transportation of goods with the same value from farther away. HTrucks’ shares diminish as distance rises, with ATrucks’ mode share in transported value fairly stable (at 50% across all distances). Rail’s share is minimal for shorter distances but rises to approximately 20% for trips longer than 250 miles. Overnight-travel time savings raise the total value and ton-miles of goods transported by ATrucks, peaking at an increase of 11% for trips between 500 and 750 miles. ATrucks transport three times the ton-miles of HTrucks with an 80% cost reduction and still double the ton-mileswith a 40% increased cost, thanks to time savings.