Quantifying the Bullwhip Effect in a Reverse Supply Chain: The Impact of Different Forecasting Methods

Abstract

The reason for this study is that the bullwhip effect can pose very serious consequences for enterprises, such as increased production costs, additional manufacturing costs, excessive inventory levels, excess storage costs, large capital overstocking, and excessive transportation costs. Thus, the problem for this study is that quantifying the bullwhip effect in a reverse supply chain and comparing the impact of different forecasting methods on it. The objective of this paper is the bullwhip effect (BE) in a reverse supply chain (RSC). In particular, this study proposes a quantitative expression of the BE in a RSC, that is, BER=Varqt/Varrt, and analyzes the impact of different forecasting methods (e.g., the moving average technique (MA), the exponential smoothing technique (ES), and the minimum mean square error forecasting technique (MMSE)) on the bullwhip effect. We evaluate the conditions under which the collector should select different forecasting methods based on the BE. We use simulation date and get some conclusions that, in some cases when using the MMSE method, the BE does not exist in a RSC. This finding is significantly different from the results on the BE in a forward supply chain. Moreover, the MMSE method can reduce the lead-time demand forecast error to the greatest possible extent, which allows the BE to reach the lowest level.