The climatic suitability for maize cultivation in China

Abstract

To provide scientific support for planning maize production and designing countermeasures against the effects of climate change on the national maize crop, we analyzed the climatic suitability for cultivating maize across China. These analyses were based on annual climate indices at the Chinese national level; these indices influence the geographical distribution of maize cultivation. The annual climate indices, together with geographical information on the current cultivation sites of maize, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, and the ArcGIS spatial analysis technique were used to analyze and predict maize distribution. The results show that the MaxEnt model can be used to study the climatic suitability for maize cultivation. The eight key climatic factors affecting maize cultivation areas were the frost-free period, annual average temperature, ≥0°C accumulated temperature, ≥10°C accumulated temperature continuous days, ≥10°C accumulated temperature, annual precipitation, warmest month average temperature, and humidity index. We classified climatic zones in terms of their suitability for maize cultivation, based on the existence probability determined using the MaxEnt model. Furthermore, climatic thresholds for a potential maize cultivation zone were determined based on the relationship between the dominant climatic factors and the potential maize cultivation area. The results indicated that the importance and thresholds of main climate controls differ for different maize species and maturities, and their specific climatic suitability should be studied further to identify the best cultivation zones. The MaxEnt model is a useful tool to study climatic suitability for maize cultivation. © 2011 Science China Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.