The Brexit realignment amid electoral volatility: The role of party blocs in the 2024 General Election

Abstract

Brexit accelerated the long-term realignment of how demographic groups vote in Britain. However, Europe is no longer salient to voters, support for the pro-Brexit Conservatives has collapsed, and the 2024 UK General Election was the most volatile on record. So, did the Brexit realignment persist? We address this question by examining the relationship between Brexit preferences and demographic groups with vote choice. We find that the demographic alignments that underpinned Brexit support continue to shape political behaviour through support for party blocs. Thus, while Brexit itself no longer drives party competition directly, the trends that it intensified are still crucial for understanding British politics.