Ensemble forecast of Indo-Pacific SST based on IPCC twentieth-century climate simulations

Abstract

A set of Markov models is developed based on a statistical linearization of 5 coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), and is applied to ensemble prediction of the tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature variations. By taking advantage of the long data records of IPCC simulations, the linear model is statistically robust, and exhibits a level of ENSO prediction skill comparable to other forecast models. More importantly, the model shows much higher skill in the western Pacific and the tropical Indian Ocean than previously achieved, thus providing new insight and optimism for the predictability of the short-term climate change in the whole tropical Indo-Pacific region. © 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.