Noise prediction of chemical industry park based on multi-station Prophet and multivariate LSTM fitting model

Abstract

With the gradual transformation of chemical industry park to digital and intelligent, various types of environmental data in the park are extremely rich. It has high application value to provide safe production environment by deeply mining environmental data law and providing data support for industrial safety and workers’ health in the park through prediction means. This paper takes the noise data of the chemical industry park as the main research object, and innovatively applies the 3σ principle to the zero-value processing of the noise data, and builds an LSTM model that integrates multivariate information based on the characteristics of the wind direction classification noise data combined with the wind speed and vehicle flow information. The Prophet model integrating multi-site noise information was adopted, and the Multi-PL model was constructed by fitting the above two models to predict the noise. This paper designs and implements a comparative experiment with Kalman filter, BP neural network, Prophet, LSTM, Prophet + LSTM weighted combination prediction model. R2 was used to evaluate the fitting effect of single model in Multi-PL, RMSE and MAE that were used to evaluate the prediction effect of Multi-PL on noise time series. The experimental results show that the RMSE and MAE of the data processed by the 3σ principle are reduced by 32.2% and 23.3% in the multi-station ordered Prophet method, respectively. Compared with the above comparison models, the Multi-PL model prediction method is more stable and accurate. Therefore, the Multi-PL method proposed in this paper can provide a new idea for noise prediction in digital chemical parks.