Seismic roulette: Hazards and risks

Abstract

The Neo Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) is the innovative multi-disciplinary scenario-physics-based approach for the evaluation of seismic hazard and risks. When an earthquake occurs, the ground shaking does not depend on its likelihood according to the widespread Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA), which estimates are too often wrong. An “unlikely” earthquake can occur at any time and, sooner or later, with 100% probability. Therefore, from a perspective of safety, it is essential that infrastructure and public installations are designed so as to resist future strong earthquakes. NDSHA has proven to both reliably and realistically simulate comprehensive sets of hazardous ground motions in many regions worldwide. Today NDSHA is gaining momentum in spreading worldwide an innovative Paradigm of Reliable Seismic Hazard Assessment (RSHA) that should ultimately change mind-sets of scientific and engineering communities from disbelief in probabilistic forecasting to optimistic challenging issues of neo-deterministic predictability of Natural Hazards and Risks.