Effects of Modal-shift Policies on the Reduction of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Freight Transportation in Japanese Prefectures

Abstract

The Kyoto Protocol went into force in February 2005. Accordingly, the Japanese Government must reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 6% below the levels in 1990. The government has estimated that the carbon dioxide emissions in the transportation sector account for approximately 22% of the total emissions of Japan and increasing with the progress of motorization. In order to achieve the reduction target, the government has promoted modalshift policies in the transportation sector. This study aims to develop a simulation model to examine the effects of modal-shift policies on the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions from the automobile transport of freight in Japanese prefectures. The model has been applied to a hypothetical case in which the average rate of modal-shift increase 50% from the levels in 2000. The findings revealed that a marked reduction in carbon dioxide emissions is expected for freight transport between metropolitan and local regions. The results also indicate effective utilization of the railway transportation and marine transportation networks, which are well developed in metropolitan regions, is important. © 2007, JAPAN SECTION OF THE REGIONAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATION INTERNATIONAL. All rights reserved.