Development of a Clinical–Biological Model to Assess Tumor Progression in Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer: Post Hoc Analysis of the PRODIGE4/ACCORD11 Trial

Abstract

Background: The follow-up of pancreatic cancer (PC) is based on computed tomography (CT) assessment; however, there is no consensus on the use of clinical and biological criteria in tumor progression. We aimed to establish a clinical–biological model to highlight the progression of metastatic PC during first-line treatment. Methods: The patients treated with first-line chemotherapy in the phase 2/3 PRODIGE4/ACCORD11 clinical trial were evaluated retrospectively. Clinical and biological markers were evaluated at the time of CT scans and during treatment to determine tumor progression. Results: In total, 196 patients were analyzed, with 355 available tumor assessments. The clinical and biological factors associated with tumor progression in multivariate analysis included gemcitabine, global health status ≤ 33 (OR = 3.38, 95%CI [1.15; 9.91], p = 0.028), quality of life score between 34 and 66 (OR = 2.65, 95%CI [1.06; 6.59], p = 0.037), carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) ≥ 3 times the standard value without any increase in the CEA level from inclusion (OR = 2.22, 95%CI [1.01; 4.89], p = 0.048) and with an increase in the CEA level from inclusion (OR = 6.56, 95%CI [2.73; 15.78], p < 0.001), and an increase in the carbohydrate antigen 19-9 level from inclusion (OR = 2.59, 95%CI [1.25; 5.36], p = 0.016). Conclusions: The self-assessment of patients’ general health status alongside tumor markers is an interesting approach to the diagnosis of the tumor progression of metastatic pancreatic cancer patients during first-line treatment.