Diagnosing Structural Change in Digital Interventions: A Configurational Evaluation Framework

Abstract

Digital interventions are widely promoted as levers of institutional change, yet their effects often prove fragile. We examine why some interventions persist while others fade. Using crisp-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (csQCA) on 13 large-scale cases from India and abroad, we identify the configurations of conditions under which digital systems become self-sustaining. We conceptualise persistence as a shift in the Nash equilibrium: when incentives realign, the new behaviour maintains itself without continuing external push. The analysis shows that software openness is neither necessary nor sufficient for durable change. Instead, six non-technological conditions—regulatory enablement, a credible revenue model, substantial scale, a clearly targeted systemic barrier, presence of enabling prerequisites, and sufficient time—are each necessary and, in combination, sufficient for an equilibrium shift; no single condition is enough on its own. Successful cases (e.g., Aadhaar, UPI, Chalo, Swiggy) meet these conditions in combination, whereas others (e.g., ONDC, DIKSHA, ICDS-CAS) illustrate how missing elements limit institutional embedding. The paper contributes a theory-informed diagnostic that links game-theoretic stability to configurational evaluation and provides practical “if–then” decision rules for appraisal. We argue that policy and investment decisions should prioritise incentive-compatible ecosystems over software attributes, and judge success by whether interventions reconfigure the rules of the game rather than by short-term uptake. This perspective clarifies when digital systems can contribute to sustainable, inclusive institutional transformation.