Abandoning Innovation in Emerging Industries

Abstract

Existing models of industry evolution describe a smooth pattern of emergence over time in which the number of firms in an industry increases, hits a peak, decreases as a result of a shakeout, and then stabilizes as the industry reaches maturity. Although this model has been well-accepted and the basic empirical finding holds true across a range of industries, we propose that the finding is not as robust as is generally assumed. We introduce an alternative pattern of evolution in which, during the emergent stage, an industry experiences a sharp decrease in the number of firms a mini shakeout before increasing again, reaching a final peak and undergoing a major shakeout as described in the extant literature. Using panel data across multiple product innovations introduced in the 20th century, we first show the pervasiveness of the mini shakeout phenomena. We then examine why some industries are more likely to experience a mini shakeout. Finally, using detailed quantitative and qualitative data on the emergence of handheld computers and digital cameras, we investigate why some firms abandon innovation before the industry even develops while others stay committed. We propose a conceptual model that highlights the role of unmet expectations and the degree of importance of the emerging industry to the focal firm in determining its likelihood of exit from the industry.