Demographic change

Abstract

This Chapter considers why and how social protection systems must take into account processes and trends of demographic change. The main statistical drivers are observed rates of fertility, mortality and net international migration, although for social protection planning trends in labour force participation rates, especially those for women, should be included. Dependency ratios provide tried and tested means for social protection planning, complemented by additional socio-economic indicators. Wide variations are seen between different countries relating to the speed of their demographic transitions, and perhaps their potential to realise a “demographic dividend” favourable for social protection planning. The impact of demographic change on social protection is bi-directional, with feedback effects. Social protection systems both provide and seek resilience in the face of vulnerability, and require cushioning mechanisms to assure their sustainability. Negative impacts may arise from disruptive events - issues focused topically by the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic of 2020.