Evolution of Spatial Pattern and Influencing Factors of Population in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

Abstract

This paper takes the population of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as the research object, and analyzes the evolution of population spatial pattern of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay area. According to the data, eleven areas of “two districts and nine cities” in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay area district are divided into three levels; the relative migration index is used to divide them into relative moving in areas and relative moving out areas, on the other hand, using the spatial panel data regression model to analyze the influencing factors of the evolution of the spatial pattern of population in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) from 2005 to 2017, the spatial distribution of population in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay area shows a trend of continuous aggregation. The geographic concentration of population in Shenzhen, Dongguan, Hong Kong and Macao is relatively high. Guangzhou, Foshan, Shenzhen and Zhongshan belong to the region of relative migration. 2) This paper selects the quality of basic education, housing price, industrial structure, medical service level, traffic convenience and income level as independent variables, adds the spatial weight matrix, and uses the spatial error model to regress the geographic concentration of population. Main results: income level, industrial structure, medical condition and traffic convenience level all promote the population agglomeration of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay area.