Uncertain future for Congo Basin biodiversity: A systematic review of climate change impacts

Abstract

Climate change impacts are expected to affect Congo Basin biodiversity at large scales, with widespread implications in terms of global biodiversity conservation. Through a systematic literature review, we identified 104 peer-reviewed and gray publications highlighting the large variability of observed and projected effects of climate change in the Congo Basin, from genes to ecosystems. Several studies document increased species vulnerability to extinction, shifts in species range and decrease in organism body size. More scattered studies report impacts on species genetics, physiology, and phenology. Studies that combine climate change with other drivers of change, such as land-use change or human adaptive responses to climate change, cast a bleak perspective for the future persistence of biodiversity in the Congo Basin. Our review highlights the need for investigations on neglected responses, including those related to population dynamics, shifts in plant resource availability and associated ripple effects across ecological levels, as well as the likelihood of large-scale compositional shifts.