Modeling Future Urban Microclimates in Athens, Greece: An ENVI-Met Analysis of Local Climate Zones Under Different Emission Scenarios

Abstract

This study investigates how future climate change will influence urban microclimates in Athens, Greece, focusing on two representative districts classified as Local Climate Zones (LCZ2 and LCZ3). Using the ENVI-met model, microclimate simulations were conducted to assess projected air temperature variations under moderate (Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) emission scenarios for mid- and late-century conditions. The analysis reveals a consistent warming trend across both districts, with average air temperature increases of approximately 2–3 °C by mid-century and up to 4.5 °C by the end of the century. Morphological characteristics were found to significantly affect thermal behavior: areas with wider street canyons exhibited higher temperatures due to increased solar exposure, whereas shaded inner courtyards remained relatively cooler. The study’s novelty lies in its integration of high-resolution urban microclimate modeling with climate scenario analysis for a Mediterranean metropolis, a combination seldom explored in previous research. The findings underline the importance of incorporating urban morphology into climate adaptation planning, supporting the design of low-carbon and thermally resilient urban forms in densely built environments.